SARS-CoV-2 is currently causing hundreds of deaths everyday in European countries, mostly in not yet vaccinated elderly.
Vaccine shortage poses relevant challenges to health authorities, called to act in a timely manner with scarcity of data.
We modelled the mortality reduction of the elderly according to a schedule of mRNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine that prioritized first dose administration. For the case study of Italy, we show an increase in protected individuals up to 53.4% and a decrease of deaths up to 19.8% in the cohort of over 80s compared to the standard vaccine recalls after 3 or 4 weeks.
Our model supports the adoption of vaccination campaigns that prioritize administration of the first doses in the elderly.
francesco sylos labini 