War Could Go Nuclear: But Where Is the EU?

There are two interpretations of the war in Ukraine. According to the first, Russia’s invasion in February 2022 was the product of Moscow’s expansionism: faced with an unprovoked act of aggression, the West must strengthen deterrence and provide military support to Ukraine. From this perspective, seeking a compromise risks being seen as appeasement.

George Beebe, former director of Russia analysis at the CIA, offers a different interpretation. He argues that the war cannot be separated from NATO’s eastward expansion following the end of the Cold War. Russia’s objective, in this view, is to prevent Ukraine’s integration into NATO. Understanding the implications of this argument does not mean justifying the invasion: if Moscow regards Ukraine’s accession to NATO as a fundamental threat, increasing military pressure may not induce it to withdraw, but rather to escalate.

Continues here