June 5, 2023 Editorials Il Fatto Quotidiano

In the development of a sound theory in physics, it is essential to understand what the critical aspects to focus on in the analysis are and what details can be neglected to be able to predict the future evolution of a certain phenomenon. Listening to Professor John Mearsheimer explain his theory of international relations (https://shorturl.at/brs49), I thought that he has followed a very “physicist” approach in his elaboration.

Mearsheimer has developed a variant of the realist theory of international relations called offensive realism. In essence, realist theory regards the most crucial element as how powerful a state is because in the international system, where there is no higher authority, every state wants to be as powerful as possible. If a state is weak, other states will take advantage of it. Realists believe that it doesn’t matter whether a state is a democracy or an autocracy, fascist or communist, as all states operate in a system where there is no central authority, and they have no choice but to compete for power and strive to be the hegemonic state, the sole great power. This doesn’t mean that a state’s domestic politics are not important, but they can be overlooked when trying to understand how great powers behave on the international stage.

Realism is a theory that applies to the competition among great powers, and the bipolar world of the Cold War fit perfectly into this framework. When the Soviet Union dissolved, we transitioned to a unipolar moment: the United States became the sole great power and was free to pursue a foreign policy of liberal hegemony. The guiding idea behind the key decisions was that economic integration, in a world dominated by the US, would guarantee international stability. However, starting from 2017, we have moved away from a unipolar world, and now we have three great powers: China, Russia, and the US. Competition among great powers has returned to the table, and this is the root cause of the current tensions.

In the liberal West, there is a strong aversion to realism because it suggests that democracies do not behave differently from authoritarian states, while there is a desire to believe that democracies act nobly and authoritarian regimes do not. Realists argue that there are no good and bad states, and all states are more or less the same, compelled to act similarly due to the anarchic structure of the international system, where there is no higher authority above states. So, according to realists, leaders like Putin, Biden, and Trump are not as crucial as the system’s structure. If you listen to much of the rhetoric in the West, the conflict between Russia and the West is framed in terms of democracies versus an authoritarian state, with the authoritarian state being the bad actor, and Western democracies being the good ones.

Thinking according to the realist theory, the deep cause of the war in Ukraine is due to the “barking” of NATO at Russia’s borders, as Pope Francis put it. The Russians saw it as a threat, which happened because the Russians think in realist terms. In a famous article from 2014, Mearsheimer detailed why “the crisis in Ukraine is the West’s fault.” He argued that according to realist theory, NATO expansion should not have continued after the eastward expansion already occurred between 1998 and 2004. He also predicted that NATO’s 2008 decision to admit Ukraine and Georgia into the alliance would create conditions for war with Russia.

The other area of current tensions concerns China. According to Mearsheimer, the United States should not have helped China grow economically. Instead, the US played a fundamental role in making China a competitor on an equal footing, fueling its economy. In this case as well, Mearsheimer wrote a very powerful book in 2002 titled “The Tragedy of Great Power Politics,” in which he argued that China’s economic growth would inevitably lead to a clash with the United States. China is a rapidly rising power, and the United States has no intention of giving up its position as the dominant power. Once again, Mearsheimer’s theory was able to make an accurate prediction.

Perhaps there is nothing new under the sun. The Athenian general and historian Thucydides wrote in his “History of the Peloponnesian War” that “the rise of Athens and the fear it inspired in Sparta made war inevitable.” It seems that history is repeating itself, but this time a world war could be fatal for humanity. Finding a way to avoid the tragedy of great powers should be at the forefront of the public and political agenda. The first step lies in understanding the causes of what is happening, which is why Mearsheimer’s guidance is indispensable.