(Published on Il Fatto Quotidiano)

Given the substantial international tensions, first with Ukraine, now with Palestine, and the backdrop of tensions between China and the United States, one wonders what common thread connects these seemingly unrelated crises.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a predictable and easily avoidable war with a serious consideration of the security needs of all involved countries, was overshadowed by the West’s overconfidence in its economic strength to easily subdue a country seen as a “gas distributor with atomic bombs.” The calculations proved wrong, and even the destruction of the Nord Stream did not substantially damage Russia.

The catastrophe in Gaza represents a volcanic eruption of tension that has been building for at least half a century. Unlike the Ukrainian crisis, it’s unclear what the ultimate goal is for Israel, which seems to have forgotten that the end does not justify the means. The tormenting of a population will only generate more hatred and terror. Even Hamas terrorists have managed to put the Palestinian issue back at the center of international attention at an unsustainable cost. But what is the common thread that ties these different crises together?

According to newly released data from NASA, the average temperature in October 2023 set a new record since measurements began, following those of July, August, and September. Climatologists conclude that we have entered uncharted territory, with indicators, especially ocean temperatures, suggesting unprecedented conditions. November 17 was the first day the global average temperature exceeded 2°C compared to preindustrial levels; November 18 was the second. A new United Nations report warns that global warming of 2.5-2.9°C is likely in the near future. Despite scientists consistently warning over the last half-century that the current trajectory is rapidly leading to extreme climate conditions, little substantial has been done to prevent the looming catastrophe.

According to the fifth National Climate Assessment, published on November 14 by the U.S. administration, severe climate disasters occur every three weeks, and no place is safe from warming, with some communities hit harder than others. Global warming causes $150 billion in direct damages each year in the U.S. due to rising seas, heatwaves, droughts, or floods, and costs are rising. From 2018 to 2022, the U.S. experienced 89 climate disasters, each causing at least $1 billion in damages. The report emphasizes that as long as greenhouse gases continue to be pumped into the atmosphere, the effects of climate change will continue to escalate, and every fraction of a degree of warming is significant.

In this perspective, climate change is not just another issue but the common thread induced by global power dynamics that ties various crises together. While an agreement may be found in Ukraine, it is more challenging to envision a timely resolution to the Palestinian crisis. However, solving the climate crisis seems truly beyond our imagination because it requires a change in our lifestyle.

But whose lifestyle? We are living in a period of immense changes where countries that were considered on the brink of underdevelopment until twenty years ago are rapidly altering economic power dynamics. The shift from a unipolar to a multipolar world is happening before our eyes: emerging countries question why they should limit consumption when their emissions are still well below Western levels.

The West has enriched itself at their expense and now is unwilling to relinquish its dominant position. At the heart of conflicts are geopolitical issues and centuries-old power imbalances that can only be resolved when it is acknowledged that the only way forward is to engage in genuine negotiations with other countries, even if they are not the “liberal democracies” favored by our media.