Tomorrow, at the Di Vittorio Foundation in Rome (and live-streamed on their YouTube channel), Jeffrey Sachs will give a lecture titled Geopolitics of a Changing World: How to Avoid Thucydides’s Trap. Here, we preview a segment from Francesco Sylos Labini, one of the event’s guests.

Since the start of the war in Ukraine, Jeffrey Sachs has been a vital source for understanding its causes. Sachs was in the Kremlin’s hall when Yeltsin signed the decree dissolving the USSR in 1991—what has become the “Big Bang” of our era. Since that moment, rather than witnessing “the end of history,” we have seen the opening of Pandora’s box, releasing the nightmares that haunt us today.

That moment was a key turning point of our age: in 1991, the “Doomsday Clock” was set at 17 minutes to midnight, and in 2024, we’re only 90 seconds away from atomic apocalypse. How and why the peace capital we inherited in 1991 dissipated is the story of the nightmare we are now immersed in. For Russia, 1991 marked the beginning of a decade-long tragedy during which per capita GDP fell by 40%, only to rise again with Putin’s rise to power (it is now 30% higher than in ‘91). Meanwhile, in the West, there was a surge in the number of billionaires and their wealth: today, the world’s 85 richest people possess as much wealth as the remaining 99% of the planet’s population. Additionally, since the ‘90s, China has risen. Its per capita GDP has grown thirteenfold since 1990, and its total GDP has now surpassed that of the United States in purchasing power parity. The combined GDPs of the so-called BRICS countries have also surpassed that of the G7 nations, which in 1991 were the most industrialized. The BRICS now represent 45% of the world’s population, produce 40% of the world’s oil, and contribute 44% to global economic growth compared to the G7’s 20%.

The rise of a major industrial power like China could potentially clash with the only remaining hegemonic power since 1991, the United States: this is John Mearsheimer’s thesis, which suggests that great powers compete for hegemony, leading to perpetual rivalry. This view may indeed help interpret U.S. foreign policy, though it may be less suited to explain China’s. For example, the United States has 750 military bases abroad in 80 countries with 170,000 soldiers, while China has only one military base outside its territory, in Djibouti. Over the last forty years, China has not been involved in any conflict, while the U.S. has been involved in more than ten.

Furthermore, global temperatures have increased more rapidly since the ’90s. While China has become the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, the U.S. still leads in per capita emissions and has historically emitted twice as much greenhouse gas as China, despite having only a quarter of its population. It is well established that the more fossil fuels are consumed, the more temperatures rise. As countries develop, their per capita GDP increases, as does their per capita greenhouse gas emissions, raising issues of global sustainability, climate justice, and the limits of growth given finite resources.

Today, Chinese manufacturing accounts for as much as the U.S. and Europe combined; China has become the largest exporter of automobiles, the leading producer of solar panels, and its energy consumption and steel production continue to grow. In the past thirty years, entire cities have been built, a vast high-speed rail network has been developed, and for every ship built in America, 250 are built in China. China has especially become a leader in patents in nearly every advanced technology sector, driven by its increasing investment in research and development. It also leads in scientific publications, academic rankings, the share of graduates in technical and scientific fields, and the export of high-tech products. This poses a new problem for the U.S., which is losing the hegemonic role it held after the USSR’s collapse. In 1948, the U.S. held 50% of global wealth with only 6% of the population, and it has always aimed to maintain this disparity. This logic sheds light on the motives behind current conflicts: Russia with its natural wealth, China as a technological and manufacturing power, and the Middle East with its vast energy resources. As a result, we are witnessing an absurd reliance on armament, a growing war mentality, and increased military spending.

The ’90s also saw the acceleration of U.S. public debt growth and interest payments: by 2023, debt has reached $35 trillion, and interest payments total $1 trillion. How this can be sustained is a question that relates to the “exorbitant privilege” of the dollar as a reserve currency and as a means for international exchange. Today’s tensions, then, are the result of a struggle for control over resources, science, technology, and currency. We ask ourselves: where has the American dream gone? Where is the America that was supposed to be the shining city on a hill? Where has the Age of Reason gone, which seemed to guide us for over two centuries? And above all: what must we do to avoid catastrophe?