The Biden administration will be remembered for creating the conditions for the return of a devastating war in the heart of Europe, its unconditional support for Israel, and, last but not least, for escalating the economic war with China. The Doomsday Clock, managed by atomic scientists and symbolically counting the time separating us from nuclear apocalypse midnight, has moved from 100 to 90 seconds since Biden’s inauguration. Climate catastrophe is advancing inexorably; the United States has increased oil and gas production. However, the most critical front remains Ukraine, where two nuclear powers face off. The war, provoked by NATO’s eastward expansion—as is now evident to everyone—appears to be entering its final stage. The Trump administration will have to manage an epic defeat, this time not against an asymmetric enemy like in Vietnam or Afghanistan, but against a major power.

The war in Ukraine has led to one of the most unexpected and surprising geopolitical shifts in modern history. Russia has not suffered a decisive strategic defeat due to the power and wealth differential between itself and NATO countries, as predicted by the supposed great Western strategists like Draghi. The U.S. proxy war against Russia through Ukraine has shown that an economy based on financialization is not stronger than one based on natural resources and actual goods production. A high-intensity conflict lasting three years has unequivocally revealed that deindustrialized Western nations are entirely incapable of winning wars, as even the new NATO Secretary-General Rutte acknowledges today. The economic war, which was hinted at at the start of the Ukraine conflict, is now the main actor, exposing not only structural but also intellectual, ethical, and moral weaknesses in Western countries. Trump claims he wants to reach an agreement with Russia and withdraw from Europe. Moving from declarations to actions will not be easy, as the Russians do not seem in a position to make significant concessions and certainly cannot yield on Ukraine’s NATO membership or the annexation of the four oblasts, plus Crimea, which has already occurred (though not recognized). Such a situation would represent a military débâcle and a political catastrophe, difficult for either the American or European establishments to accept. Unfortunately, today, those who want to continue the war indefinitely seem to be Europeans (with exceptions like Hungary, Slovakia, and theoretically Romania!) rather than the new American administration. Europe has never considered a diplomatic route, and the fact that Trump is putting this possibility on the table pushes the so-called European elites into a narrow and claustrophobic corner.

Winning the Cold War was essential to convince a significant part of the world that its cause was legitimate. However, the world has already seen what happens when the United States achieves unipolarity: an arrogant foreign policy under every administration. Most countries do not wish to return to this situation. While the West has tried to isolate Russia, the majority of the Global South sympathizes with it. The transition to a multipolar world order is therefore inevitable and already underway. The war in Ukraine has served as a catalyst, pushing Russia and China to form a seemingly unbreakable strategic partnership due to a convergence of interests: countering the omnipresent American threat. The question is when the United States, and Europe following behind, will stop resisting this reality and start being constructive actors in a new world order.