Introduction to Jeffrey Sachs’ lecture at the Vittorio Foundation: “Geopolitics of a changing world” published by Il Ponte

“The old world is dying, the new one is slow to appear, and in this twilight, monsters are born.” This phrase by Antonio Gramsci perfectly captures the essence of the historical moment we are experiencing. Instead of witnessing the “end of history,” we have seen the opening of Pandora’s box, from which have emerged the monsters that inhabit our present nightmare.

Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Jeffrey Sachs has been an essential reference for understanding its causes. He seems to embody a character from Italo Calvino’s short story All at One Point, narrating his own story—he who was there at the beginning of time and space when the Big Bang occurred. Sachs was there at the Big Bang of our era because he was in the Kremlin’s Hall when Boris Yeltsin signed the decree dissolving the Soviet Union in 1991.

That moment was a key turning point in our era: suffice it to say that in 1991, the “Doomsday Clock” was set at 17 minutes to midnight, whereas in 2024, we are only 90 seconds away from nuclear apocalypse. How and why the peace capital we inherited in 1991 was squandered is the story of the nightmare we are now living.

For Russia, 1991 marked the beginning of a tragedy that lasted ten years, during which GDP per capita fell by 40%, only to rise again with Putin’s rise to power (and today, it has increased by 30% compared to 1991). In the West, meanwhile, there was a rapid increase in the number of billionaires and their wealth. This growth has accelerated to the point where today, the eighty-five richest people in the world hold as much wealth as the remaining 99% of the global population: we have entered the age of vast and insurmountable inequalities.

Another fundamental event took place in the early 1990s: from that time onward, we witnessed the rise of China. China’s GDP per capita has grown 13 times since 1990, and its total GDP has now surpassed that of the United States in terms of purchasing power parity. Moreover, the combined GDP of the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) has now exceeded that of the G7 countries, which in 1991 were the most industrialized and wealthy nations in the world (including, incredibly, our own). Today, the BRICS nations account for 45% of the world’s population, produce 40% of the world’s oil, and contribute 44% to global economic growth, compared to the G7’s 20%.

Several authors have pointed out that the rise of a major industrial power like China could potentially come into conflict with the only remaining hegemonic power since 1991, the United States. This is particularly the thesis of John Mearsheimer in his book The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, which argues that great powers compete to achieve hegemony, leading to perpetual competition and military tension.

However, Mearsheimer’s perspective seems well-suited to interpreting U.S. foreign policy but perhaps less so for explaining China’s foreign policy. As argued by figures such as Kishore Mahbubani, Singapore’s former ambassador to the United Nations, the Chinese approach differs significantly from that of Western nations. For instance, the United States maintains 750 military bases abroad in 80 countries with 170,000 troops, whereas China has only one overseas military base, in Djibouti. Moreover, over the past forty years, China has not been involved in any military conflicts, whereas the United States has engaged in more than ten.

The year 1991 also marked a fundamental shift: from that point on, global temperatures began to rise at an accelerating rate. This occurred because China—followed by India and other nations now entering the path of industrialization—began emitting greenhouse gases at an intensive scale. Today, China is the world’s largest producer of greenhouse gases, but in terms of per capita emissions, the United States still holds the record. Historically, the U.S. has emitted twice as much greenhouse gas as China, despite having only one-fifth of its population.

The critical issue between development and nature lies in the correlation between the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and global temperature: the more fossil fuels are burned, the higher the global temperature rises. Furthermore, an analysis of greenhouse gas distribution shows that the richest 10% of the global population is responsible for 50% of emissions, while the poorest 50% accounts for only 8%.

The political challenge we face today is that as countries develop and their GDP per capita increases, so do their per capita greenhouse gas emissions. This presents a global sustainability dilemma regarding economic development, a climate justice issue between nations, and a fundamental limit to growth, given that natural resources are finite.

Today, China not only has the largest GDP in the world but, more importantly, its share of global manufacturing is equal to that of the U.S. and Europe combined. China has become the leading exporter of both electric and traditional automobiles, the largest producer of solar panels, and continues to see growing energy consumption and steel production. Over the past thirty years, entire cities with skyscrapers and metro systems have been built, a massive high-speed rail network has been developed, and today, for every ship built in America, China builds 250.

Most notably, China has become a leader in patents across nearly all advanced technological sectors, thanks to its increasing investment in research and development. Additionally, it now leads in scientific publications, in global academic institution rankings, in the share of graduates in STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) fields, and in the export of high-tech products.

This situation presents a new challenge for the United States, as it is losing the hegemonic role it has held since the collapse of the USSR. In 1948, George Kennan, the architect of U.S. foreign policy during the Cold War, stated that the U.S. possessed 50% of the world’s wealth while accounting for only 6% of the global population; thus, the primary objective of U.S. policy has always been to maintain this disparity.

Viewed through this lens, and considering the inherent limitations of our planet’s resources, the reasons behind wars and geopolitical tensions become clear: Russia, with its vast natural wealth; China, a scientific and technological powerhouse with the world’s largest manufacturing industry; and the Middle East, home to the world’s largest energy reserves.

The competition for hegemony fosters polarization, leading to the inefficacy of multilateralism, which is paralyzed by geopolitical tensions and unable to address today’s challenges. For example, resolving the climate crisis requires an international agreement, which currently seems impossible to achieve. As a result, we are witnessing an absurd escalation in militarization, a growing war mentality, and increasing military expenditures.

The year 1991 also marked the beginning of an acceleration in the growth of U.S. public debt and the interest payments required to service it. Just last year, the national debt reached $35 trillion, with interest payments rising to $1 trillion. How this remains sustainable is clearly a fundamental issue tied to the “exorbitant privilege” of the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency and the primary medium for international trade.

Moreover, the unipolar era led by the U.S. over the past thirty years has been characterized by the increasing marginalization of the United Nations and international law.

In February 2022, the Western plan was not to defeat Russia on the battlefield but to bring it down through economic sanctions. Russia accounted for only 5% of global GDP and roughly 5% of NATO’s military spending, and it was mistakenly perceived as merely a “gas station with nuclear weapons”—a country that could be crippled quickly through economic measures. However, Russia withstood the sanctions remarkably well, having prepared in advance, benefiting from its vast natural resources, and aided by the fact that much of the world did not adhere to the sanctions. Today, Russia’s economy is expanding, unlike that of Europe. This is despite the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline. As a result, energy costs in the European Union are now four to five times higher than in the U.S., severely impacting European industry.

In summary, today’s global tensions stem from the struggle for control over scarce natural resources, scientific and technological dominance, and the currency that facilitates global trade, all in the context of the massive U.S. public debt.

What we all ask ourselves is: What happened to the American Dream? Where is the America that was supposed to be the shining city on a hill? Where has the Age of Reason gone, the era that seemed to guide us for over two centuries?

And most importantly: What must we do to avoid catastrophe?

These are the key questions that loom over our era.

---

[1] Speech given in occasion of the lecture by Jeffrey Sachs “Geopolitics of a changing world: how to avoid the Thucydides’ trap” Fondazione di Vittorio, Rome, November 4th 2025