Forecast

cover_frontChapter 1 of Science and the Economic Crisis 

 

We introduce the concept of prediction in natural sciences to illustrate the foundation of the scientific method. The way to understand a scientific prediction has changed over time, as more complex systems composed of a growing number of bodies have been considered. While predicting the positions of heavenly bodies represented the most popular verification of nature fundamental law, that of gravity, for the weather forecast the situation is somewhat different. We will thus see how the concept of chaos has introduced one of the most important changes in the modern view of nature, surpassing the dream of the nineteenth century deterministic physics together with the introduction of a probabilistic approach for understanding of the physical systems consisting of many elements. The difference between open and closed systems, illustrated by considering examples from meteorology, climatology, epidemiology and in particular seismology will allow us to explain the different role of forecasts in science and those aimed at guiding decisions in social and political level. #ScienceEconomicCrisis 

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