U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has clearly outlined the three concrete conditions agreed upon by Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin to initiate negotiations on ending the war in Ukraine: no NATO membership for Ukraine—a demand Russia has made since the Munich Conference of 2007, when Putin explicitly stated that this would be an unbreachable red line. No presence of American troops in Ukraine. No application of NATO’s Article 5 and no NATO peacekeeping mission in Ukraine. The latter two conditions seem self-evident, considering that the war erupted precisely to prevent the presence of NATO forces on Ukrainian territory.

However, the most significant aspect of Hegseth’s speech was his acknowledgment that “the American position reflects the harsh reality of the battlefield situation.” In other words, the United States—and with it, NATO—has lost the proxy war against Russia. This is not a “betrayal” but a simple fact: the war is lost, and the United States is coming to terms with the consequences. Judging by the debate in Italy—starting with President Mattarella’s unfortunate speech comparing Putin to Hitler—it seems that many still believe the war can be won by distorting reality through a convenient narrative: good versus evil, democracy versus autocracy, and so on. But if truth is the first casualty of war, it eventually resurfaces and demands a reckoning. This time, that reckoning will be particularly costly for Europe.

The war is still ongoing and will only end when the United States and Russia reach an agreement that is mutually satisfactory. Currently, Russia enjoys a significant military advantage, while the U.S. can leverage a deal beneficial to Moscow, tied to the new European security architecture aimed at preventing future tensions already visible on the horizon—from the Arctic to the Baltic, and down to the Black Sea. While Ukraine has suffered devastating destruction, it is Europe that finds itself in the most fragile position: politically defeated and not even considered a relevant interlocutor at the negotiating table. After all, European leaders continue to do the only thing they have proven capable of over the past three years: sabotaging every diplomatic attempt. This makes them both irrelevant and harmful, and any potential peace agreement will inevitably be decided over their heads.

However, the consequences of this war extend beyond Europe, affecting the entire Western world. The image of the United States has been permanently altered—from a liberator to a great destabilizer. Yet, the weakness of Western nations runs even deeper. As NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte stated: “Russia now produces in three months the ammunition that all of NATO, despite being twenty times larger than Russia economically, produces in a year.” And this is despite Russia’s military budget amounting to roughly $130 billion annually—ten times less than the combined defense spending of all NATO countries. If these $1.3 trillion in annual defense expenditures are to be reduced, as Trump himself claims, it is evident that NATO’s industrial and organizational debacle will become a central issue in public debate once the defeat is acknowledged.

The solution, however, cannot be limited to merely increasing funding for the arms industry. A structural transformation of the technological system will be necessary, with renewed investment in education and research. Without solid intellectual and industrial supply chains, and without a radical rethinking of the state’s role in the economy, it will be impossible to reverse course and respond effectively to future challenges. In the immediate term, due to an inadequate political leadership, Europe is heading toward a period of political marginalization, which one can only hope does not mark the beginning of a “century of great humiliation.”

Hope is the last thing to die—the hope that European public opinion, numbed by a press that has come to believe its own propaganda, will finally begin to recognize the sheer volume of lies it has been subjected to. The only viable path forward is to acknowledge the truth about the causes and consequences of this war and, from this awareness, redefine Europe’s role in the emerging multipolar world.

Pubblicato su Il Fatto Quotidiano